The battle to take political control of Birmingham

The battle to take political control of Birmingham, the UK's largest authority, is the most unpredictable it has ever been.

One of the jewels in Labour's local government crown, the proliferation of candidates and challengers from non-traditional parties, coupled with a very low predicted turnout, means a shake-up is expected.

Several parties admit they are preparing to negotiate with others after the count on 8 May.

As candidates enter their final week of campaigning, the city's local election has never been harder to call.

For all but 12 of the past 50 years, a Labour leader has been in charge of Birmingham.

This time it seems unlikely that a single party will win the 51 seats needed for a majority.

That means there is a strong likelihood the council will be run by a joint administration for the first time in more than a decade.

However, it would look very different from the Conservative/Liberal Democrat alliance that was in power until 2012, because of the new challengers disrupting local politics.

Birmingham matters to Labour. It is the largest local authority in the UK and has long been a stronghold.

Cracks in its dominance appeared at the general election in 2024, when it lost one of its previously safest seats, Perry Barr, to an independent.

Pro-Gaza candidates also came close in two other Labour-held seats.

It is an issue that is still being talked about on the doorsteps.

Parties admit that as city councillors there is very little they can do about international affairs, but Julien Pritchard, from the Green Party, said they realised they needed to have a stance.

"As well as being councillors who are trying to make sure the council delivers for the city, we also are representing communities across the city and representing what's important to them; and in some parts of the city that's international issues," he said.

With only two councillors previously, the Greens expect to make bigger inroads this time.

The local elections are expected to show just how far traditional party lines have fractured, with voters choosing between six, seven or even eight candidates from an array of parties and alliances.

It is hard to rule out any grouping's chances.

At a hustings event held by Birmingham Live, there were seven candidates or spokespeople, but there could have been more.

The site's veteran reporter Jane Haynes has covered the city's politics for decades and said this election was like no other.

"That old traditional way of doing politics seems to have disappeared and we're seeing it come to life here in Birmingham.

"We're seeing really strong campaigns and messages coming out of places that don't normally have voice in the political system."

There is one issue that is dominating campaigning, and that is the ongoing bin strike.

Walkouts by members of the union Unite began in January 2025 and there has been an all-out strike for more than a year.

There have been no recycling collections during that time and waste collections have been heavily disrupted.

Ten days before polling, the ruling Labour group announced a proposed deal had been reached that would be ratified after the election.

Its rival parties have expressed suspicion about the timing of the announcement, but all have made ending the dispute and sorting out collections a priority.

"We'd seek the correct legal advice from both parties in order to get an end to the bin strike, clean up our streets, get the finances in order and deliver change for Birmingham," said Jex Parkin, who is standing for Reform, which expects to make a breakthrough.

He is, at 24, part of a new generation of would-be politicians.

The city council says it is no longer effectively bankrupt after declaring itself so in September 2023.

The effects of its financial distress have been felt widely, with the closure of community and youth centres, libraries and cuts to services.

John Cotton, the Labour leader, admitted the city had endured some tough years but said his party was the one to take it forward.

"Brummies have got a choice at this election. It's between unity and a clear plan for the future with a Labour-led council or, frankly, division and risk with Reform and so-called independents pitting communities against each other."

The independents pose a new challenge in many parts of the city, but there are different groups.

Some are ex-Labour councillors who have left the party, others campaign on hyper-local issues in particular wards.

But one large grouping has emerged called the Independent Candidate Alliance (ICA).

It has reached an agreement not to stand against the pro-Gaza Workers' Party, because its candidates share similar views.

Raihaan Abbas, from the ICA, who at 22 years old is another first-time politician, said independents appealed to people fed up with politics.

"A lot of people we've spoken to on the doors don't want to vote any more, because they feel that it's going to be the same failures again.

"Independent is new and they have more trust in independents from all of us coming from our communities."

Since local government reorganisation in the early 1970s, the Conservatives are the only other party to have run the city council. And the last time, between 2004 and 2012, they needed Lib Dem support to do so.

The Tories remain the largest party locally after Labour and they insist they want to win an outright majority.

This time, the party will appear on the ballot paper as Local Conservatives and leader Robert Alden conceded he might have to consider working with others after the election.

"We'd have to see who was actually elected, and then we'd seek to work with those who share ideals about trying to clean up Birmingham, save weekly bin collections, fix the potholes," he said.

The other important issues raised at hustings and on the doorstep include calls for better regulation of houses in multiple occupation, a crackdown on fly-tipping and the need to tackle potholes many say are the worst they can remember.

Lib Dem leader Roger Harmer's mantra is "clean up the city, end the bin strike and deal with fly-tipping and litter across our streets".

He added he wanted to "ensure antisocial behaviour is cracked down with proper enforcement of the rules and finally to actually deliver a council that listens to communities".

With the turnout expected to be about 30%, and the proliferation of candidates, the election is incredibly hard to predict.

The new challengers hope that will help them across the line, but the same factors could work in favour of traditional parties if they can get their core vote out on 7 May.

The count in Birmingham takes place on 8 May and the outcome will make a difference to the lives of its 1.2 million citizens.